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Draft Losers

thomas dimitroff

Dimitroff should have held on to his picks.

Now let’s take a look at a few teams that did not fare as well this weekend. They will tell you they really like their picks, as all clubs do on draft weekend, but an objective look tells us differently.

These were teams that did not maximize the value of their picks, reached at times and came away from the selection process without significantly upgrading their roster.

Atlanta

I mentioned this before when evaluating Cleveland’s draft - I think the Falcons made an unnecessary and costly move to trade up for Julio Jones (Alabama) at #6 overall. The Jets made a similar move in 2009 to get Mark Sanchez but that was for a starting QB. Julio Jones will be a good receiver but contrary to what GM Thomas Dimitroff thinks, the Falcons are not a team that is one player away from reaching the Super Bowl. They were exposed badly by the Packers in the playoffs and still have multiple needs on the defensive side of the ball that went largely unaddressed on draft day. ILB Akeem Dent (Georgia) is a good player but they already had Curtis Lofton as the starter in the middle and could have used help at OLB or DE instead. They got good value out of fifth round RB Jacquizz Rogers who will be a good utility player but I thought they had good depth at running back to start with and the Rogers pick could have gone to an area of greater need like their secondary. But overall, sacrificing 2nd and 4th round picks in a year when they could have used them on a defensive player and a wide receiver (from a deep class) later on made no sense. Julio Jones will make their offense better but they still have needs on defense. By trading away 2nd and 4th rounders this year and a 1st and 4th rounder next year, I think the Falcons gave up too much for a player that is good but will not put them over the top for a championship run.


Tennessee

This is more about their first round pick than anything. Jake Locker (Washington) was ranked as the #1 player overall coming into this past season. Had he come out last year, he might have been the #1 overall pick but he played poorly his senior year and his stock plummeted to the point where he was considered a second round talent. The guy is smart, tough and a solid leader but he struggled in an area that is probably the most important aspect of quarterback play at the pro level: accuracy. Quarterbacks who are not accurate do not make it in the NFL and this is where Locker really struggles. He throws exceptionally well on the run but from the pocket, where he will make his living on Sundays, he was under 50%. It was his proficiency throwing on the run (an impressive 70%) that lifted his overall % to a respectable level and without better success in the pocket, I find it hard to project him as a solid starter at the next level. With Blaine Gabbert still on the board, I thought the Titans made a huge blunder by taking Locker at #8. He certainly has talent but if he cannot throw accurately, he will not be around for long. The rest of Tennesse’s draft was pretty average. Second round pick Akeem Ayers (UCLA) was a guy I was not particularly high on. I think he will be a better fit in the Titan’s 4-3 than a 3-4, as many had projected him, but I do not see him being any more than just an average player. He is versatile and can play a lot of roles - run stopper, pass rusher, drop into coverage - but does not excel in any facet. DT Jurrell Casey (USC) fits their defensive line scheme well and brought good value in the third as a quick penetrator but he was their only pick I liked. I thought 4th round ILB Colin McCarthy (Miami) would come off the board later than he did. He has good instincts but his lack of athletic ability prevents him from being anything more than a special teamer. The rest of their draft was not noteworthy. The selection of Locker really hurt Tennessee’s draft. They could have taken an impact player with the 8th pick but instead, they have a QB who will need time to develop and may still never make it as a starter. Without the necessary accuracy, I find it hard to imagine Locker as a successful NFL quarterback.


Seattle

I thought Seattle had a terrible draft. After a nice job last year in getting blue chippers like OT Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas, among others, they came away from this year’s draft with negligible talent. OT James Carpenter (Alabama) is a nice player but not worth the 25th pick. He will move from LT where he played in college to either guard or right tackle for the Seahawks. He is versatile and that must have been what made him intriguing but he has trouble with speed rushers on the edge and lacks the pop of a dominant guard on the inside. I like him as a player but the Seahawks did not get good value with the pick. The same could be said of John Moffitt (Wisconsin), their 3rd rounder. He is okay but the third round is high for him. He does not move well and is more of a wall off blocker than a physical battler and you hate to use a high pick on guys with limited physical ability. Moffitt was more of a fifth round prospect and I would have felt better about the pick if they selected someone like Will Rackley from Brown. Also a guard, Rackley is a much better athlete, has better footwork and can knock guys out with his upper body power. Rackley went to the Jaguars with the very next pick. OLB K.J. Wright (Mississippi St.) was a nice 4th rounder but their other fourth rounder, WR Kris Durham, was a reach. The Seahawks had two fives, a six and two sevens but failed to bring in anyone intriguing with those picks. Seattle clearly panicked over the state of its offensive line. They reached with their first two picks to fill needs and the rest of their draft was uninspiring.


Kansas City

I was a little disappointed with the Chiefs’ draft. Scott Pioli is a terrific talent evaluator but I think he reached with a bunch of his early picks. Jonathan Baldwin (Pitt) is a talented receiver but he is a limited route runner and needs time to develop. He is also viewed as a bit of diva and as a result brings some “boom or bust” potential. Considering these factors, taking him with the 26th pick is a risky move. Pioli made a nice pick on center Rodney Hudson (Florida St.). The second round might have been somewhat high for a center but he is talented and might not have been there when they selected in the third. I am not crazy about their 3rd round picks. OLB Justin Houston (Georgia) does not work hard and is viewed as an underachiever despite having impressive physical skills. He could be an excellent pass rusher but his lack of consistent effort leads me to believe that something will always be lacking from his play at the next level. DE Allen Bailey (Miami) is an okay player. He can take on blocks as a 3-4 DE but does not do much else. He will probably be a back up. The Chiefs had a need for a nose tackle and despite being in position to take both (Phil Taylor or Kenrick Ellis) opted to pass in favor of lesser players. CB Jalil Brown (Colorado) in the fourth and QB Ricky Stanzi (Iowa) in the fifth were nice pick ups but I think the Chiefs missed some opportunities in this draft. In Houston and Bailey, they come away with overrated prospects and with reaches for Baldwin and Hudson, they have two selections that did not bring the value you would like to see.

Written by Alan Levin


Date Posted: 5/2/2011

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