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Draft Winners

John Elway

Elway and the Broncos had a good weekend.

Well, the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books and it is time to see who improved their team and who did not. Conventional wisdom tells us that a draft cannot be evaluated accurately until three years later and while that might be true, we can determine which teams reached for needs and which teams obtained the greatest value for their selections.

This is important because generally speaking, the need picks frequently do not work out. Conversely, the teams that select players around the approximate area they were expected to come off the board usually do well.

Filling a position of need while also getting great value is the best of both worlds. Getting a player at the right spot is just as important as getting the right player because of salary cap implications.

You do not want to be paying a player a second round salary that you could have obtained in the 4th round. Too many of those misses will wreck a team’s cap, particularly if they whiff in the first round and have to pay a boat-load of money to someone who does not make a real contribution to their team.

This list also reflects which teams overlooked glaring needs and came away from the process with significant holes in their roster remaining. So based on value, positional need and working the draft process to their advantage, here are the winners and losers from this past weekend.

In this first installment, we will look at the winners - those teams that noticeably improved their team and are on the right track talent-wise heading into this season.

Denver

I thought John Elway and company did a great job getting value for each of their picks. Von Miller is a game changing linebacker who can pressure the quarterback and wreak havoc all over the field. Second rounder Rahim Moore (UCLA) is a very good cover safety. He will have to improve his tackling and overall toughness but there was no better cover safety in this draft. Third round guard Orlando Franklin (Miami) is a big, tough, experienced trenchman and brings versatility to the Broncos’ line. His best fit is at guard but he could play RT as well. Third rounder Nate Irving is an underrated player - a very instinctive ILB who flows to the ball extremely well. Fourth round safety Quinton Carter (Oklahoma) will be a great complement to Moore. Carter is a tough, physical in-the-box presence who can also intimidate receivers over the middle. With their second 4th rounder, they selected developmental TE Julius Thomas from Portland State who is a former basketball player and has the athleticism, body control and hands you look for at the position. He is raw but the talent is there. Even their 7th rounders were solid - TE Virgil Green (Nevada) is very talented and has a lot of upside and DE Jeremy Beal (Oklahoma) is very solid both as a run defender and pass rusher and I am surprised he lasted until the 7th round.


Cincinnati

I am not a huge fan of the Bengal’s organization. They take unnecessary risks on players with character concerns, which usually come back to haunt them. But this year they drafted some clean players and got excellent value where they selected them. WR A.J. Green was one of four elite talents in this draft (Von Miller, Patrick Peterson and Marcel Darius were the others) and will be a dominant playmaker in the NFL. Andy Dalton (TCU) was a smart pick. They did not overreact and trade up for a guy who was still there for them in the second. With Carson Palmer’s very real trade demand, the Bengals had to cover themselves and come away with one of the top QB’s in this draft and with Dalton, they get a kid who is very smart and instinctive and has all the intangibles you look for. Third round OLB Dontay Moch’s (Nevada) motor never stops running. He is a high energy guy who can pressure the QB. They got a 4th round steal on guard Clint Boling (Georgia) who is a physical, nasty road grader. Safety Robert Sands (West Virginia) was a guy I really liked and the Bengals got him at the top of the 5th after the Jets passed on him a few picks earlier in the fourth. Sands is a big, physical back end defender that matches up well with tight ends. Six rounder Ryan Whelan (Stanford) is a solid, “move-the-sticks” type of slot receiver who knows how to find openings in zone coverage. Even CB Korey Lindsey (Southern Illinois) has some upside. He is raw but has some skills to work with.


Tampa Bay

I thought the Buccaneers did a nice job this weekend. This is a very young team that no one saw coming last year. They has a winning record despite starting 10 rookies. That was the first time that had happened in 30 years! I thought head coach Raheem Moore was in over his head but he rebounded from a tough first year and nearly made the playoffs in his second. GM Mark Dominick showed for the second year in a row that he knows what he is doing on draft day. While rumors swirled that DE Adrian Clayborn would be limited by a condition (Bell’s Palsy) that affected his right arm, Dominick held firm and took a player who was a dominant playmaker at Iowa. Good job by Dominick not getting caught up in all the speculation and trusting what he saw on film. He made a similar call on Da’Quan Bowers in the second round. Once regarded as the best player in the draft, Bowers had a free-fall down the board as teams were scared off by an arthritic knee. Despite the condition, Bowers had a breakout year at Clemson and should be a dynamic pass rusher for the Buccaneers. There are certainly long-term concerns about his health but Dominick got excellent value (pick #51) on a guy who had top-5 ability. Third rounder Mason Foster (Washington) is a solid all-around ILB with the instincts and tackling ability to thrive in the middle. TE Luke Stocker (Tennessee) is a good inline blocker with good hands and knows how to work the seam. Safety Ahmad Black (Florida) was a great value pick in the 5th round. His stock fell because he is undersized and ran a slow 40 time but the guy makes plays. At 5-9, 185, he does not look the part but he knows how to play the game. He has great anticipation and instincts and plays faster than his timed speed. He also plays bigger than his size indicates. Allen Bradford (USC) was a nice sixth round pickup. He is not explosive but is a good between-the-tackles runner.


Cleveland

Mike Holmgren and the Browns were the beneficiaries of one of the more questionable moves all weekend. The Falcons moved into their spot at #6 overall to take WR Julio Jones and in the process surrendered their 2nd and 4th round picks this year and their 1st and 4th round picks next year. Jones is an excellent wide receiver and certainly a team has to give up that much if they want to move up 21 picks but I did not think it was necessary. The Falcons have too many holes on defense to think they are a “one player away” team and giving up so much for a receiver in a year where there was nice depth at the was a bad move. The Browns, who need a lot of bodies, capitalized and selected some top-notch talent. At #27 overall, they picked Phil Taylor (Baylor) who is a huge, physical run stuffer. He would have been a better fit as a 3-4 nose tackle but will still bring the a physical presence to the Brown’s new 4-3 scheme. Second rounder Jabaal Sheard (Pitt) was one of my favorite players in this draft. He is physical and tough and can defend the run while also offering an array of pass rush moves to get the QB. With their other second round pick, which they received from Atlanta, they selected Greg Little, WR from North Carolina who is a physical receiver with the size, speed and hands to be the #1 receiver they need to help Colt McCoy’s development. In the fourth, they selected FB Owen Marecic (Stanford) who is a throw back guy who played both ways (inside linebacker as well) in college. He will be another tough, physical player for them. Then in the 6th round they took developmental CB Buster Skrine from Chatanooga who could develop into a nice nickel corner. Solid job by GM Tom Heckert in getting good value with his picks and really shaping the team’s identity with physical, tough players to play in Cleveland.


Jets


Clearly this is a homer call on my part but I think the Jets did a great job this weekend. They stood pat in the first round and Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple) fell right into their lap. He was not expected to be there and should have come off the board at pick #18 to the Chargers. They needed help at the position and when they did not take him, he slid as the next series of teams on the board run 4-3 schemes and would have been bad fits for him. The Jets were very fortunate to get him where they did and I believe he will develop into a Pro Bowl player. They were similarly fortunate as NT Kenrick Ellis (Hampton) slid to them in the third because of character questions. This was another coup. They had a need at a position where there were few prospects and grabbed one of two (Phil Taylor was the other) who could have helped . Ellis is enormously talented and if he can stay on the straight and narrow, he too could develop into a standout player. In the 4th round they took RB Bilal Powell, a guy I liked who will be a nice complementary back. The 4th round is a little high for him but the team obviously felt they needed to hedge their bets with Joe McKnight who had a disappointing first season. In the fifth they took a talented kick returner/slot receiver in Jeremy Kerley from TCU who should fit in well if they lose Brad Smith in free agency. And as most who have read my pieces to this point know, I absolutely love the selection of Greg McElroy in the 7th. He is a guy who I think can not only back up Mark Sanchez but is someone who, in a few years, we might see generate interest from other clubs for a starting spot. If that happens, the Jets could be in position to garner high draft pick compensation for his services.


Written by Alan Levin


Date Posted: 5/2/2011

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