But this year Tannenbaum may have to alter his approach. With no CBA in place, teams cannot trade players and without a second round pick, they lack the ammunition to move up in the first round.
A far more likely scenario would be to move down. The Bills, Bengals, 49‘ers, Titans, Redskins and Vikings are all teams that could use a quarterback but are unlikely to come away with one in the first.
That means that a few of them, particularly the Redskins and Vikings, might want to move up from their second round spots to beat out those teams (Bills, Bengals and 49‘ers) picking early in the round.
These teams know the Jets are eager to move down in order to regain another pick (likely a third rounder) to compensate for the loss of their second so the Jets’ should get some interest for their 30th pick overall.
If the Jets move up, it should only be for an impact pass rusher but there are not many who fit into the 3-4 scheme. J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Ryan Kerrigan have the pass rush ability to warrant the move up but the Jets have not been linked to any of them.
Watt is a high-motor, tough guy who can play the 5-technique. Smith is a little raw and unrefined but is an impressive athlete who can crash the pocket. Kerrigan is a relentless disruptor. He is always in the backfield causing problems for the opposition and has the toughness Rex Ryan loves.
But all three guys are expected to come off the board between picks 10-20 and the Jets really have to be in love with one of them to justify moving up that far - highly unlikely.
Two other guys that make a lot of sense for Gang Green in round one but are expected to come off the board well before pick 30 are Cameron Jordan and Muhammad Wilkerson. Both players are solid 3-4 DE’s but neither is an impact pass rusher and therefore would not warrant a move up.
If the Jets stay put, the players who make the most sense are NT Phil Taylor, OLB Jabaal Sheard and OLB Brooks Reed. Taylor has slipped because of character questions and Sheard and Reed are projected second rounders but neither would be a surprise if selected at the bottom of round one.
If all three are off the board, the Jets should trade out. They are rumored to be interested in linebacker Akeem Ayers from UCLA but I think he would be a bad fit.
He is more of a finesse guy, would probably fit better in the 4-3 and while he has pass rush ability, he disappears from the action too often and is not worth the 30th pick. His teammate, safety Rahim Moore, has been projected to the Jets in many mock drafts but I believe he is a bad fit as well.
He is excellent in coverage but plays soft against the run and lacks the toughness that Ryan looks for. I also believe the Jets, like certain other teams, do not believe in drafting certain positions in the first round and safety is one of them.
Tannenbaum subscribes to the theory that certain positions like QB, LT, CB and a pass rusher are critical in building a team and should be targeted with one’s first round pick, if possible. He has done this with his selections of Sanchez, Revis and Kyle Wilson and could do the same this year by taking a pass rusher.
That is why I like Sheard and Brooks. They are impact pass rushers which is the team’s biggest need and only hole in the four “prized positions” that Tannenbaum values.
Nose tackle, because it is so hard to fill, is another high-value position, which is why Phil Taylor would make sense as well.
If the Jets move down, they will be drafting more for value than positional need. There are a slew of WR’s expected to come off the board in round 2 and most would make sense for the Jets. They include Torrey Smith, Titus Young, Leonard Hankerson, Randall Cobb and Jerrel Jernigan.
Offensive line has good depth in round two as well and players like G/OT Ben Ijalana, G/OT Danny Watkins, G Clint Boling and G/OT Will Rackley all would be solid picks if the Jets move down.
A dark horse pick, and someone who has grown on me in recent weeks, is Dontay Moch. I have him rated as a third round pick but he could come off the board in round two. He brings the pass rush ability the Jets are looking for and while he is undersized, he has the rush skills to pressure the pocket.
Staying put or moving down are more likely options for the Jets this year. Although Tannenbaum prefers to move up, there are not many guys worth moving up for who will be difference makers.
The Jets need to get younger in their defensive front seven and the best way to get value there with the 30th pick is to stay put and take either Taylor, Sheard or Reed. At least one of the three should still be on the board and taking him would provide an upgrade to their defense.
Written by Alan Levin