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Colts 2.0

The Jets must blitz Manning up the middle and force him out of the pocket.

It has been easy for doubters to explain away the Jets’ late season surge for one reason or another. The Colts and Bengals rested their starters and handed them an easy win. In the wildcard game, they overtook a beat up Cincinnati club that had dropped three of its last four.

But against San Diego the Jets quieted the skeptics. By beating the Chargers, the Jets established themselves as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

The Chargers were one of the top teams in the league and had won 11 in a row.  The Jets traveled cross-country to a hostile environment, took on one of the most explosive offenses in the league and beat them.

Rex Ryan and his squad deserve a ton of credit. They have consistently performed at a high level during this run and it can even be said that they have played over their heads, exceeding their normal capabilities.

That is why this team has captured the imagination of its fans and the media alike. They embody what everyone loves about sports – being part of a collective but functioning as one.

The Jets are so tightly fused as a unit that their will is almost impossible to break. For a team to beat them they will have to go punch for punch and let’s face it, not many teams are ready for that type of brawl.

Ever since their loss to Atlanta, the Jets’ rallying cry has been “Mission Impossible”. They had such a slim chance of making the playoffs that they had to rally around each other to achieve the impossible and it brought them closer to together.

Now they face an opponent that will certainly be motivated after being under the microscope after their week 16 loss to the Jets. The Colts have all the pressure in this one and will rely on the league’s MVP to get a W.

Peyton Manning is the Colts and he will have to lead his team to victory. Everything the Colts do revolves around him so he will have to be sharp.

Despite a Hall-of-Fame career, Manning is only 8-8 in the playoffs so he is not as invincible as one would think. The Jets did a decent job against him in the last match up as he went 14-21 for 192 yards and no touchdowns – not bad numbers but certainly not Manning-esque.

The Jets were the best defense in football for a reason – they give up few points and more importantly, few big plays. That is what frustrated Phillip Rivers and threw him off his game.

The Jets’ defense makes offenses work for every yard. If they want a score, they are going to have to drive the length of the field to get it.

The Colts use the short passing game as most teams use the run. They force teams into match up problems and let Manning find the weak link.

In week 16 that weak link was Lito Sheppard and I fully expect Manning to target him again. Sheppard gave up 8 catches for 110 yards to Austin Collie and Hank Baskett and will have to do a better job this time.

The Jets used a lot of disguised zones against San Diego and it worked out well. It allowed them to hide Sheppard’s deficiencies and they confused Phillip Rivers.

But Manning is not as easily fooled. In order to disrupt this passing game, the Jets’ defensive backs must be physical with the Colts’ receivers. When in man-coverage they must get a jam on them at the line. When in zones, they have to get good hits on them after the catch.

The Jets’ best chance for victory is to physically dominate the Colts. If they can beat up these receivers, they will have less bounce in their step come the second half.

TE Dallas Clark is one of Manning’s favorite targets but he had a quiet game in the first contest. He was covered by Dwight Lowery who surrendered 4 catches for 57 yards but more significantly, Manning misfired on a few throws to Clark.

Manning threw to him and Reggie Wayne 14 times but only completed 7 of them. Revis and Lowery did a good job of forcing these guys off their routes and it disrupted their timing with Manning.

Darrelle Revis held Reggie Wayne to 3 catches for 33 yards and there is no reason to think he cannot hold him down again. Revis has dominated every receiver he has faced this year so it is Wayne’s turn once again to take his lumps.

Wayne is an excellent route runner and catches a lot of balls on intermediate crossing routes so Revis will have to stay in his hip pocket as he moves through the trash in the middle of the field.

The Colts like to run a lot of bunch formations. Their receivers criss-cross off the line and this action sets natural picks on the defenders. The Jets’ defensive backs must communicate well when the Colts come out in this alignment.

Near the goal line, the Colts like to run “rub” routes, particularly for Reggie Wayne. On this type of play, their outside receiver will run his man toward the defender of the slot receiver which rubs him out of the play and makes it difficult for him to fight through and get to the outside where the ball is thrown.

The Jets must communicate well when they are in man coverage and defending this play near their goal line.

The Jets will need to continue their physical style in order to contain the Colts’ passing game. Wayne and Clark each caught 100 balls this season so it will be Ryan’s priority to take them out of the game and force Manning to beat them with someone else.

The Jets did not sack Manning in their last game and hit him only once so it is not realistic to expect them to apply a great deal of pressure. Manning’s top-notch decision-making and quick release make it hard to get to him but the Jets can do other things to have the same effect.

Ryan likes to blitz David Harris and Bart Scott through the A-gaps and will continue this trend against Indianapolis. If they can bring pressure in Manning’s face and force him to move outside the pocket, he will be less consistent with his accuracy.

Manning is a pure pocket passer and likes to sit back there and get in a rhythm with his receivers. When forced to move around, he gets out of his comfort zone and misfires.

Defensively, the Colts play a 4-3 scheme predicated on speed. Their front seven flows to the ball well and is aggressive in pursuit. In fact, one way to attack them is to use their aggressiveness against them.

The Jets should have a great opportunity to use play action in this game. The Colts linebackers will bite hard on these fakes since they will be determined to stop the run.

Brian Schottenheimer should incorporate more of these plays on first and second down. It will loosen things up for their running game and open up the middle of the field in the passing game.

Dustin Keller has really elevated his game in the playoffs and the play action has afforded him that opportunity. Against Cincinnati he made two huge catches (one for a touchdown) off play action fakes.

In addition to the play action, mixing in a reverse or two will keep this defense honest. Gaining big yardage on these plays is not as important as setting up your bread and butter, which is running the ball between the tackles.

Speaking of bread and butter, Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones should have some opportunities for big plays, particularly in the second half. That has been the Jets’ recipe for success – play smash-mouth football throughout and capitalize on a tired defense in the second half.

In his two playoff games, Greene has averaged 5.5-yards per carry in the first half while gaining 6.3-yards in the second half. He definitely gets stronger as the game goes along and his physical running style matches up well against this small Colts defense.

Look for the Schottenheimer to use a lot of zone blocking schemes against the Colts’ front. Indianapolis is a fast-flowing D and will be easily washed off the line by the wall of blockers formed in this scheme.

That should open up cutback lanes for bread and butter. Jones is at his best when he cuts it back and Greene is becoming dangerous in this area as well.

The goals for Mark Sanchez in this game are the same as they have been for weeks – don’t turn the ball over, complete safe throws on third down and manage the game.

I called out D’Brickashaw Ferguson in the last Colts game, claiming he suffered a brain fart when he allowed two sacks to Dwight Freeney but I was wrong. After watching the game film again, I realized the sacks were Sanchez’ fault.

On both plays, the Jets went with an empty backfield and the Colts brought six rushers against the Jets’ five-man line. In those scenarios the quarterback has to hit his hot read but Sanchez failed to read his protection properly.

Ferguson actually did a good job against Freeney and he matches up well against him. Freeney has a patented spin move that often frees up a path to the QB but Ferguson handled it last time.

Brick has the quick feet to reset after Freeney spins in front of him. Sanchez must be aware of Freeney’s tendency to cross in front of him so he can slide to his left and avoid him.

One of the match ups to watch in this game will be middle linebacker Gary Brackett versus Nick Mangold. With Bob Sanders out, Brackett has been the heart and soul of their defense.

He plays with a lot of intensity and the rest of the defense feeds off it. At 5-11, 235 he is undersized but has excellent short-area quickness and instincts.

He tends to play on the edges because he does not take on blockers well and this is a weakness the Jets should exploit. They must keep him in the middle and make him stop the inside running game.

Mangold has done a great job of getting to the second level. In fact, the Jets have sprung a number of big runs because of his downfield blocks.

Mangold needs to continue this trend if the Jets are to be successful running the football.

To win this game the Jets must physically dominate the Colts. Indy is built to win with speed and gives away a lot of size to the Jets, particularly in the trenches.

The Jets must impose their will and play their physical style of football. Their offense must eat up the clock and slow down the game. Their defense must challenge every pass and beat up on the Colts’ receivers.

This game should be tight and will probably come down to who wants in more in the end. The Jets must keep it close and hope their defense can shutdown Peyton Manning late in the game.

Indianapolis has won a ton of games on its last possession with Manning running the two-minute offense. This could be high drama down the stretch, pitting the Jets’ defense against one of the all-time best QB’s.

Don’t be surprised if the Jets are clinging to a narrow lead in the end and have to put it in the hands of their defense to stop Manning. Rex Ryan will certainly take that match up.

He has been touting this defense since day one. In fact, coaching this defense is the closest thing he can get to actually being out on the field, which you know he would love to do.

Because of Rex Ryan, this team is not afraid to compete on the big stage despite being significant underdogs. The players lay it on the line because that is how Ryan coaches.

This team is loose and will give Indianapolis everything it has, win or lose, and that is something Jets fans can hang their hat on.

This team plays to win and the players trust one another. As a unit they are greater than the sum of their parts and that, more than anything, will make them tough to beat on Sunday.


Keys

• Rex Ryan must mix up his defensive schemes. He cannot let Manning get too comfortable in his reads. Manning is at his best when he can identify the defense and find the hole in it. Ryan must keep him off balance by disguising his coverages and blitzes.

• Lito Sheppard will have to step up. Manning picked on him in their last meeting and will do so again. Revis and Lowery did a nice job limiting Manning’s two best options (Wayne and Clark) and have a good chance of doing it again. Sheppard will have to be physical with Austin Collie who has become Manning’s #3 target.

• The Jets’ defensive backs must communicate well. The Colts like to run a lot of bunch formations and rub routes to set natural picks on defensive backs.

• The Jets’ must blitz up the middle and force Manning out of the pocket. He is far less comfortable moving to the outside than he is sitting in the pocket.

• The Jets must beat the Colts physically. The Jets’ defense must beat up on their wide receivers and their offensive line must dominate at the point of attack.

• The Jets’ running backs must hit the cutback lanes. Schottenheimer will use a lot of zone blocking schemes, which should wash Indy’s fast-flowing defense to one side. That will open up creases for bread and butter to cut against the grain.

• The Jets should work in some play action with Dustin Keller. Defenses that face the Jets tend to over commit to stop the run, particularly from their inside linebackers. With good play action fakes, these guys will move toward the line, which will open up zones behind them for Keller.

• D’Brickashaw Ferguson must be on his game. Dwight Freeney is the most dangerous pass rusher in the league and Ferguson will have to shutdown his spin move in order to keep Sanchez upright.

• Nick Mangold must get to the second level. Gary Brackett is one of Indy’s top playmakers. Mangold has a decided size advantage over him and should win this match up, which will allow the Jets’ to run between the tackles.

 


Date Posted: 1/22/2010

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