This team has not handled success well and could use some extra motivation in a game many expect to be a cakewalk. The fact that many have questioned the legitimacy of their last win (myself included) could fuel them to prove everyone wrong.

While the Jets are enjoying their emotional high, the Bengals have stumbled recently and their collective psyche appears fragile. Defensive Coordinator, Mike Zimmer, lost his wife to cancer at the beginning of the season and that, among other factors, has helped bring this team together. But the Bengals are just two weeks removed from its most recent tragedy.

The death of WR Chris Henry has rocked this team and they have been slow to recover. Their near loss to Kansas City highlights how vulnerable they are right now. They have lost two of their last three and are finishing off a stretch of three road games in four weeks.

This team is physically and emotionally drained, which is one reason why Marvin Lewis may hold back a number of players.

Carson Palmer is still recovering from a thumb injury and is just one season removed from major elbow problems to his throwing arm. I would be surprised if Palmer plays at all considering his current injury and tendency to get nicked up.

Lewis is also reflecting on an injury to one of his biggest defensive playmakers, Rey Maualuga, who broke his ankle last week. There is a good chance Lewis will decide to protect his guys from further injury and yank key starters in the first half if he plays them at all.

If the Patriots win in the afternoon, the Bengals are locked in to the #4 seed regardless of what happens against the Jets. In addition, when confronted with a similar scenario in 2005, Lewis elected to sit his starters in the team’s final game, a meaningless one against Kansas City.

Expect Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Cedric Benson to get a lot of rest in this one.

Even if Palmer plays, the Jets’ defense stands a good chance of handling the Bengals’ passing game. Cincinnati has had problems stretching the field, especially when the defense contains Ochocinco.

With Darrelle Revis being the only sure thing on the Jets’ defense, there is little chance Ochocinco will be able to make a mark in this game. Revis has shut down every receiver he has faced this season and Ochocinco will be next.

Without his go-to guy, Palmer will have problems sustaining drives. Besides, the Bengals’ passing game has not been great this season.

It is ranked 22nd in the league (193 yards per game) and the offense is scoring only 20 points per game, which ranks them 18th.

If Palmer is held back, journeyman J.T. O’Sullivan will get the nod but he is not a guy Jets fans should worry about. The Bengals are his fourth team in as many seasons and has not shown the consistency to win games when the starter cannot go.

His only significant game experience came last season in San Francisco where he compiled a solid 58% completion rate but he also threw 11 interceptions vs. 8 touchdowns in eight games.

The Jets’ defense should be licking its chops if O’Sullivan is in the game. He does not make good decisions and is often careless with the football.

He tends to lock on to receivers downfield and forces throws into tight coverage. He has a good arm but this works against him because he overestimates his ability to fit balls into tight windows.

The Jets’ secondary should have opportunities for big plays and their pass rush will have chances as well. O’Sullivan takes a lot of sacks by trying to extend plays. Expect the Jets to try and strip the ball as well since ball security has been an issue for him too.

The Jets’ secondary must make plays on the ball. O’Sullivan has a tendency to throw pics and the Jets’ defensive backs must come down with the ball when given the chance.

Against Atlanta they dropped five interceptions and that had a huge impact on the game’s outcome. They will have to close the deal against O’Sullivan and shorten the field for the Jets’ offense.

The Bengals rank 6th in the league in rushing offense (132 yards per game) and have resurrected the career of Cedric Benson. But Benson is injury prone and I do not expect him to play much in this one. Instead, recently added Larry Johnson should get most of the carries.

The Jets better not sleep on this guy. He has a lot of wear on his tires but he is more than capable of breaking off some big runs.

At 6-1, 230 lbs Johnson has excellent size. He runs with good pad level, sees the field well and is a very instinctive runner.

He has a good burst and can make guys miss at the second level. He also runs with good power and is tough to bring down in the open field.

The Jets will have the tough job of preparing for both Benson and Johnson but their running styles are very similar. They will have to gang tackle and wrap up well if they hope to contain this rushing attack and make O’Sullivan beat them with his arm.

Former Rutgers star Brian Leonard is an excellent all-purpose back. He runs tough between the tackles, has deceptive speed and has great hands out of the backfield.

He could see more than the 2-3 carries he normally gets when Benson plays and will certainly be thrown to a lot on third downs.

Leonard presents a tough match up for David Harris and Bart Scott who will have to cover him on passing downs. Both will have to make good reads and get to the perimeter to keep him in check.

The Bengals are ranked 6th in the league in rushing in large part because of their offensive line and many of these guys should see significant playing time. Coaches tend to rest their skill position players to limit their exposure to big hits but linemen tend to remain out there.

Their risk of injury is less, plus it is hard to generate the chemistry needed along the offensive line if a few back ups are inserted. This could spell disaster for your quarterback even if he is your back up as well.

LT Andrew Whitworth is their best all-around blocker and he is a tough SOB to boot.
This guy is a real brawler and likes to mix it up in the trenches. He will be matched up against Calvin Pace on most passing downs so do not expect big results from the Jets’ linebacker.

The Jets will have better success attacking left guard Evan Mathis. At 6-5 he is tall for his position and tends to play too high as a result. He lacks lower body strength and does not anchor well against the more powerful defensive tackles, which should bode well for the Jets.

Marques Douglas and Mike DeVito are good bull rushers and stout vs. the run and should have success against Mathis.

Despite tweeting Darrelle Revis and challenging the Jets’ All Pro this week, Chad Ochocinco may not get much of a chance to battle him on the field. He is too valuable to this offense and will likely be on the sidelines for much of this game.

Former Jet and fan favorite, Laveranues Coles, will probably see some action but unfortunately for him, he will draw Revis in most passing situations. Coles is an outstanding route runner and is as tough a receiver as you will find but that will not be enough to get the better of “Master Lock”.

The Bengals like to use Andre Caldwell in the slot and he has had success running short routes in the middle of the field. He is a tough receiver that can make difficult catches in traffic and brings some good after the catch ability but he will not run away from anyone and produces few big plays.

I would be shocked if Marvin Lewis played his top skill position players for too many series in this game. He has little to gain and a lot to lose.

It is much more likely that he will rest Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco. Both Palmer and Benson are injury prone and are too important to this team to risk injury in a game of little consequence.

I for one hope these guys play. The Jets lucked out against the Colts and need to prove, mainly to themselves, that they are a good football team and deserve to be in the postseason.

If they cruise to another win, playing against back ups, they will not have earned the right to play among the league’s best. At some point this team needs to learn how to win.

They have lost too many close games in the fourth quarter this season and have not shown they have the mental toughness to rally in crunch time. Until they do that, they will never know how to bring home a win.

Developing that ability is much more important than coasting to a playoff berth against a weak opponent. The former will sustain them over the long haul while the latter will be forgotten by the time they are cleaning out their lockers a week later.

The Jets need to establish themselves as a winner and may get a chance to do that if they can beat the Bengals’ best players. They may not have any say in the matter if Marvin Lewis pulls his starters but if these guys play at all, the Jets can make a major statement by putting a beating on them when they are in there.

If they can do that, not only will they win the game but they will be a tough team to beat in January.


Keys

• The Jets’ defensive backs must do a better job of catching the football. They should get opportunities at interceptions vs. O’Sullivan and must take advantage.

• The Jets’ defensive linemen must try to strip the ball from O’Sullivan when he fades back. He has had problems with ball security and will put the ball on the ground if they go after it.

• Darrelle Revis must take Chad Ochocinco out of the game. The Bengals have had problems attacking teams deep when Ochocinco is kept in check. Now that Revis has established himself as the premier shutdown corner, he needs to take out the Bengals’ best receiver, which should severely limit their offense.

• The Jets’ defensive ends must take advantage of left guard Evan Mathis with their bull rush. He lacks the lower body strength to anchor vs. the Jets’ more powerful linemen.

• The Jets’ defense must gang tackle and wrap up vs. Larry Johnson who will probably get the bulk of the carries. Johnson is a big, physical runner and will not be brought down by one tackler.